Factors Affecting Fresh Fruit Export to Canada in New Jersey: A Regression Analysis

Principal Investigator:
Qiutong Liu

Faculty Advisor:
Nazif Durmaz

Abstract:
Fresh fruit is one of the top five agricultural exports in New Jersey, which is the primary export goods in NJ and has a significant influence on the whole country's export structure. Therefore, it is worth analyzing the relevant factors influencing fresh fruit export in NJ. This paper mainly explores three factors: whole-world income (measured by real-world GDP), exchange rate (between the US and the entire world), and CPI, using time-series techniques. To this end, quarterly data covering the period from 2004 to 2023 are employed and tested with multiple linear regression methods. The hypothesis posits a strong positive correlation between global income, CPI, and fresh fruit exports in NJ and a negative correlation between exchange rate and exports. The results will show the linear relationship between these three variables and fresh fruit export in NJ, which will be analyzed and explored deeply to find further measures that can help optimize NJ and the United States' export structure.